By Randal Roberts
The news might not be all bad for those of us who choose not to buy health insurance, beginning in 2014. It seems like the penalty will be far less expensive than buying insurance coverage, especially if you are self-employed. In a Wall Street Journal article published March 28, 2013 and entitled Restaurant Chains Cut Estimates for Health-Law Costs, written by Scott Thurm, he writes that many of the national fast food chains are reducing their cost estimates for employee coverage in connection with ObamaCare, some as much as 80% for the calendar year of 2014. Now that seems encouraging!
The chains are estimating that many employees will either choose to pay the $95 annual penalty (the financial penalty per person for 2014) instead of buying insurance that could cost hundreds of dollars per year or they are figuring that many employees may still be eligible for Medicaid or coverage under the insurance of their parents or some other family member. In subsequent years, the law allows for a penalty increase to $395 for 2015, then$695 per person in 2016. (It could include up to 3 family members or $2,085 annually.) After 2016, the penalty will increase by the amount of inflation in the previous year. (This is not a definitive explanation of the penalties but works for this short article and is generally correct.)
Recently, I read that some companies are thinking of forcing employees to average less than 30 hours per week, which will eliminate those employees from the insurance qualification. Other companies that have many departments are toying with the idea of incorporating each department, where possible, to keep the number of employees below the 50 employee threshold, which will allow the smaller company (department) not have to conform to ObamaCare. You can see in each of these scenarios, how they can adversely affect the employees and in turn hurt the companies.
Of course the hardest hit sector will be the small businesses around the country, those that are only eking out an existence. Many will have to wait and see what the battlefield will look like, while many are already preparing by finding ways to cut costs and lower the number of workers they have on their payrolls.
In the final analysis, once the dust has settled and the bodies have been counted and buried, the small business person will find a way to make it work. That is their nature, it is in their DNA.